Falling Enrollment

I do not follow the Pickens County School District much these days, but I did take an interest in last week's decision by the school board to go back to virtual schooling. However, what peaked my interest was not the virtual vs in-person learning question or even the mask or not to mask debate. It was something different.

As I watched the school board meeting last night, and listened to the board member comments, I thought not one trustee sees what is going on, has a clue what to do about it, and Covid will make the situation much worse.

These systems are inefficiently expensive and demand more and more funding each year. For a large part, federal and state funding is based on enrollment and enrollment in the school district falling.

School district enrollment in 5K-12 peaked at 16,236 in 2008-09. This past year it was 15,207. It has fallen by 1,029 students. They have since boosted part-time K4 and K3 enrollment, but at its core of K5 to 12th grade, enrollment is falling.

The K5-12 decline isn't only in the rural areas. The Easley attendance zone had 5,853 students in 2008-09. Last year it was 5,662.

Enrollment is falling for a variety of reasons I think. Part of it is county demographics. As I have long said, there are less jobs here and as commutes to Greenville lengthen, parents with school age children generally will not want to live in Pickens County.

Looking at the 2020 census, you can see the 0 to 18 year old population in Pickens County only rose 147 the past 10 years (see item 1). Looking at it by area on the map (item 2), in the red shaded area the 0 to 18 year old population was up, the light areas it was down.

There were also two decisions the school board made that really angered the public and this soured parents on the system. In 2005 the residents of Pickens County voted down a $197 million referendum. Instead of then taking the building plan piece by piece, the next year the school board went around the voters and the state constitution and passed a $400 million construction/ Greenville Plan (I voted "No" by the way). I think that was the first blow to public confidence that began to hurt enrollment growth.

The 2016 closing of Holly Springs and AR Lewis also hurt public confidence in the school district (I voted "No" on that too). When the school district went from five elementary schools in Pickens to three, 84 students/ parents voted with their feet and left.

Additionally, alternative charter schools have been successful and are growing at an impressive clip. Youth Leadership Academy started with about 60 students if I remember correctly. They are up to 240 now, heading to 288 students next year. Lakes & Bridges Charter School started at about 110 and are now up to 205 students. Home schooling is rising too.

As you saw at last night's school board meeting, due to Covid, half the parents are afraid to send their children to school. Covid could linger for years. The 45 ADM numbers for 2021-22 are not out yet, but enrollment this year can not be good.

On the positive side, the county population is growing at a high rate. Pickens County was the 12th fastest growing county in the state. Most of that is in the 18 plus range (see item 3), and maybe they’ll have some babies. Plus, the state legislature refuses to pass any kind of school choice bill, helping traditional schools hold on to their students.

However, all government systems (especially the education systems) are quite inefficient. They do not manage existing budgets and have trouble setting spending priorities. Annual revenue must grow at a good clip to keep these systems functioning smoothly. As you saw this year, the school board will bend and just raise tax rates.

In 2000 about 65% of your county tax bill went to schools. Today it is 71%. Even though 5K-12 enrollment is down over that 20 year period, there has been this education tax creep because these systems are inefficient and need a steady stream of new money. The school district can not afford to lose more students. It is a daunting challenge in the Covid world of 2021 and the school board needs to wake up to it.